Group C:
Algeria: 250,000-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
The Desert Foxes from Algeria are deadly down the left side of the field and have an abundance of speed elsewhere. Nadir Belhadj is one of the best attacking left backs in the tournament. Ahead of him is Karim Ziani, who is a talented enigma in left midfield. With these two overlapping, the opposition left side had better be good.
Why they won't:
The Algerians are one of the most inconsistent teams in the tournament. They knocked off a great Egypt team to advance to the World Cup, then got demolished by them in the African championship in January. Recent results do them even less justice. They've been beaten soundly by both Serbia and Ireland with matching 3-0 scorelines. Inconsistency does not spell success in the World Cup. Even their talented left side is known for lapses in form. Ziani in particular is notorious for not living up to his potential. They also have a nasty reputation as being a dirty team. You can't pick up stupid cards in the World Cup because it will come back to kill you.
Projection:
Though they can certainly put together a few good matches, their inconsistency will always come back to haunt them. They're more likely to find themselves in last place in Group C than in the top 2 spots. Don't expect Algeria to advance.
England: 8-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
The English invented the beautiful game, and happen to be very good at it. They are among the favorites in every tournament, and will be looking to win their first World Cup since 1966. Wayne Rooney had his best season to date and has to be included in the discussion for the world's best players. He will lead the attack alongside superstars Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard. All three are among the best players in the English Premier League. The defense is headlined by John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, and Ashley Cole. This is a star studded squad and matches up with the world's best in nearly every category.
Why they won't:
The English media would have us believe the English players are Gods among men. That isn't quite the case. Many of them are overrated by a press corp which loves hyperbole. Rooney does have very slight injury concerns. He should be fine, but the worry is still there. Lampard and Gerrard have not gelled well in the past, but coach Fabio Capello has seemingly found a way to make it work. John Terry's career has took a turn for the worse since his tabloid scandal. Further defensive worries cropped up when Rio Ferdinand was ruled out for the tourney due to injury. All these concerns add up to a degree of uncertaintly about just how good this squad is. A loss to Brazil and some unconvincing wins against low level teams adds further question marks. Finally, goalie is always a major concern.
Projection:
England's players may be slightly overrated by their crazed press, but that shouldn't diminish the talent which they do possess. Rooney in particular is one of the few players in the world who can carry a team to a title. If his injury concerns are indeed behind him, England will be a threat to win it all. First place in Group C will likely come easy at least. Look for England to make it to the quarters at least, and don't be suprised to see them take the cup home for the first time since '66.
Slovenia: 100,000-1
Why they'll win it:
Slovenia's great tactical organization is their biggest strength. They are a side without a single star player, but they play well as a team and can be physically imposing. Striker Mile Novakovic is a towering presence up front while goalie Samir Handanovic is supremely underrated. In qualification, the defense allowed just 4 goals in 10 games, a mark that was among the best in the world. Still, they were forced to squeak out a win over a good Russia team to advance in a playoff.
Why they won't:
The defense is good, but to win you need to score. They don't have an offensive spark and that is a big problem. They may have to rely on set pieces which should not be counted as a reliable goal scoring option.
Projection:
Slovenia's stout defense and great goalkeeper can keep them competitive for awhile, but a more talented team should put them away eventually. I see them fighting for the second spot in this group alongside USA, but just falling short.
United States: 100-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
A second place finish in the Confederations Cup just a year ago leaves team USA high in confidence. Only a Brazil comeback kept them from winning the World Cup tune-up event. USA's biggest strength is it's intense work ethic. What the player's lack in skill, they make up for with a never say die attitude. Starting at the back, Tim Howard is among the world's best goal keepers. Oguchi Onyewu is back healthy in the defense along with captain Carlos Bocanegra. Landon Donovan is the player who will need to be at top form in order for the US to win. He had an eye opening campaign at Everton this year and might be in the best form of his life. Jozy Altidore leads the attack at just 20 years of age. He's got the pace and instincts to make a splash here.
Why they won't:
Since the Confed Cup, they haven't exactly lit the world on fire. You'd think they'd ride that momentum to more victories, but it didn't happen. Losses to Honduras, Netherlands, and Czech Republic in friendlies were disappointing, although the "A" team wasn't playing in most of those games. The trouble with the USA is the same as always, what do they do against the big teams? They don't match up in most departments against the top teams. They are a second tier team and need to work their tails off to replicate that Spain upset a year ago. Also, Altidore's sprained ankle leaves the attack in panic mode at this point. If he isn't good to go by the England game, my odds for the US would plummet.
Projection:
The Americans will have no excuses if they can't make it out of this group. Slovenia and Algeria are beatable, and the England match-up should be a tight affair. If they can start the tournament off with a shock against England, look out. Just like last year, they could ride the momentum to a cup run. I see the USA taking second in Group C and making it to the quarter finals.
Tune in tomorrow for my breakdown of Group D.
No comments:
Post a Comment