Everything you need to know about Group B

The best way of breaking down each group is giving what I believe each teams odds are of winning the World Cup. This idea sprang to me when some friends were asking me about which teams I think might win it this year. They asked about Greece, to which I responded, "I would give you 200-1 odds at one dollar that they won't win it." Well, they took that bet, and the idea was born. So without further ado, let's take a look at Group B.

Group B:







Argentina: 5-1 odds






Why they'll win it:

Leo Messi. He's the best player on the planet and a World Cup victory would cement his legacy alongside his hero Diego Maradona. It could be said that Messi has actually underachieved when playing for his country, which isn't saying much considering how great he's played for his club, Barcelona. There's no doubt that he'll be determined to show the world why he's considered the best. But Argentina is no one man show. Gonzalo Higuain, Carlos Tevez, Sergio Aguero, and Angel di Maria all enjoyed great years with their respective clubs. Indeed with these 4, the attack is not a worry. The defense is anchored by Walter Samuel, who was a rock at the back of the Inter side which won the Champions League this year. It also seems that the Argies are rounding into form at the right time. They beat Germany, another soccer powerhouse, in Germany last month. So things seem to be falling into place for a title run.

Why they won't:

Diego Maradona is not as good a coach as he was a player, not by a long shot. Argentina struggled mightily in qualifying. It took a late goal against Peru to save their World Cup hopes. Maradona appears to be in the Jose Mourinho mould of coaching. That is, he attracts a lot of press attention to take the heat off of his players. He shares little else with the great Mourinho however, and that's a problem. His squad selection in particular is under heavy scrutiny. He failed to pick Esteban Cambiasso and Javier Zanetti, who were both key players for Inter this campaign. Clearly these two deserved a spot, and probably could've started, but 'Dona decided they didn't have a place in his side. Apart from the coaching question marks, they also have to figure out how to best utilize Messi. He hasn't reached his full potential when playing for his country, and that needs to change.

Projection:

Argentina is by far the most talented team in their group. They have a wealth of experience in every department. The fact that they are still a favorite to win despite leaving out Cambiasso and Zanetti speaks volumes about the talent at their disposal. I feel that the coach, Maradona, is the biggest question mark. He isn't great tactically and can be a distraction at times. Still, Argentina will be in the running for a title. There's just too much talent on this squad. If Messi plays like he does for Barca, look out for Argentina in the quarters and semis.





Greece: 5,000-1 odds





Why they'll win it:

The Greeks won the European Championship back in 2004 because of a stout defense and a propensity to convert from set pieces. Their uber-defensive style worked wonders, though neutrals were bored to death. This team is still playing the same style, but missing a few faces. Sotirios Kyrgiakos enjoyed a pretty good year with Liverpool and should be the pillar at the back. Giorgias Karagounis leads the attack and is a wonder goal waiting to happen. Because of the aerial ability of most of the Greek players, they will again need to convert corners and free kicks into goals.

Why they won't:

The Euro titles win was 6 years ago, and let's be honest, lightning doesn't strike twice. That win was a fluke, and teams have figured out Greece in the meantime. Sitting back all game playing defense is a tactic for lesser teams because it relies heavily on the luck of nicking a goal first. If Greece can head in an opening goal off a set piece , they're golden. But otherwise, they can't play from behind. Their style just doesn't allow for that. Even their recent form suggests an early exit here. They qualified in an easy group featuring soccer minnows such as Latvia, Luxembourg, and Moldova. They were recently beaten soundly by Senegal in a friendly, and they tied North Korea. Neither results give hope to a deep run at the cup for the Greeks.

Projection:

The odds of the Greek economy turning around are better than the odds of the Greeks coming anywhere near winning the World Cup. That is not a good thing. I know I gave my friends 200-1 odds on Greek winning, but 5,000-1 is more like it. I don't see Greece advancing to the knockouts, and dead last is a definite possibility. Both Nigeria and South Korea look to be in better position to snatch that 2nd spot after Argentina.

Nigeria: 2,500-1 odds







Why they'll win it:

On paper, Nigeria is Africa's most talented side. Although, the glory days of this soccer rich country are just a little behind them, they still have the chops to compete against the world's best. Taye Taiwo and Joseph Yobo are both known commodities in Europe and will be the defensive standouts. John Obi Mikel plies his trade as a central midfielder with English champions Chelsea. He is likely their most talented player and will be looking to stamp an impression in this tourney. The attack is ripe with options including Obafemi Martins and Yakubu. Both have enjoyed successful spells in the English Premier League, which is known as the best in the world. Add in the fact that Nigeria will have further motivation to win on their home continent and Nigeria is looking like a dark-horse pick to make a run at the cup.

Why they won't:

The most talented teams on paper aren't always the best teams on the pitch (read: France). Nigeria had a disappointing tournament at the African championships in January and needed a near miracle to advance this far ahead of Tunisia in their qualifying group. They sacked their coach recently and their soccer federation is in disarray. It just seems that the talent on this squad doesn't gel together as it should, and that's a problem. Even recent friendly results are inconclusive, with a win over lowly Congo and a draw against Saudi Arabia and Columbia. It's tough to know what to expect here. They could land anywhere from first to last in this group.

Projection:

Apart from Argentina, this group is wide open for Nigeria, Greece, or South Korea to step up. I give Nigeria decent odds because they are more talented than Greece and about equal to S. Korea, and they will be eager to make a run on their home continent. Look for the Nigerians to compete for that 2nd spot in Group B and maybe cause a scare in the round of 16. In any case, Nigeria plays an attractive style of soccer which will be fun to watch if you're a neutral.






South Korea: 1,000-1 odds





Why they'll win it:

They've had a really good run of form of late. Just this year they've registered friendly victories against Finland, Latvia, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Japan, and Belarus. They have not lost all year actually. Form like that can't be ignored. There aren't a lot of household names in this team, but they play well together and know how to perform at the World Cup, having reached the semis on home soil 8 years ago. Park Ji-Sung of Manchester United fame will be the key for this team. If he plays well, they will go places.

Why they won't:

Their defense is nothing to brag about. Against attacking sides like Argentina and Nigeria this could spell trouble. The only real test they've had in friendlies was the win against Ivory Coast, but an upcoming match against Spain should give us a better indication of where exactly this team is at. Though this team can compete well against any "second tier" team, I'm not so sure about what they can do against the powerhouses.

Projection:

Due to their great run of games leading up to the World Cup, I give the South Koreans the best odds of advancing to the knockout stage alongside Argentina in group B. After that, however, I don't see them making it past the quarterfinals. A round of 16 result is the most likely result for them.




Tune in tomorrow for my breakdown of Group C.

Everything you need to know about Group A

The best way of breaking down each group is giving what I believe each teams odds are of winning the World Cup. This idea sprang to me when some friends were asking me about which teams I think might win it this year. They asked about Greece, to which I responded, "I would give you 200-1 odds at one dollar that they won't win it." Well, they took that bet, and the idea was born. But without further ado, let's take a look at Group A.

Group A:






France: 20-1 odds








Why they'll win it:

France is jampacked with talent. A world class player will be found in every position in this squad. Franck Ribery is one of the world's best attacking talents. Youann Gourcuff is not a household name yet, but may become one as he's a driving force through the midfield. Thierry Henry has aged, but he can still lead the line at a high level. The defense is fully capable of keeping a clean-sheet, but they can be tested by a good attacking team. Also, look for Hugo Lloris to have a great tournament. At just 23 years old, he's already established himself as one of the world's best keepers.

Why they won't:

Raymond Domenech, the coach for France, is an idiot. He's had an extremely talented squad for years now, but achieved nothing. It took a hand-ball goal against Ireland just to make it to World Cup. There is wide speculation that he's only kept his job because the French Football Federation doesn't want to pay the massive buy-out it would cost to get rid of him. Sound like a disaster? It gets worse. He neglected to pick one of the best young strikers in the world, Karim Benzema, for the team. Benzema didn't have the best year at Real Madrid, but his class is undeniable. Instead of this great young player, he chose Djebril Cisse, who had a decent year in the Greek league. The Greek league is not a very good league FYI.

Projection:

20-1 might actually be too generous. I can't see "Les Bleus" winning this, but with the talent they have, you never know. They may just be able to overcome their absent-minded coach, but don't count on it. I expect a quarterfinals finish at best for France.










Mexico: 75-1 odds







Why they'll win it:

Mexico recently played a tune-up match against England and by most accounts thoroughly outplayed them. Of course they also lost that match 3-1, so take that fact with a grain of salt. We did learn some valuable things about the Mexicans however. They can attack with the best of them. Carlos Vela is a great young talent who may use the grand stage to introduce himself to the world. They're also a great passing team, even against a soccer powerhouse like England. This bodes well for "El Tri", and even their defense is reliable with Rafa Marquez in command. Finally, Mexico's youth teams have been extremely successful, and all that talent should be about ready to present itself. They will be heavily favored to advance to the knockout stage, with only France likely to give them any trouble.

Why they won't:

Mexico is always capable of making it to the knockouts, but can't seem to get any further. In '02, they lost to USA (WOO!) in the quarters. In '06, Argentina broke their hearts in extra-time with a Maxi Rodriguez wonder strike. Performances like these fuel the idea that Mexico is a "good", not "great" teams.

Projection:

They should have no problem advancing, but against the world powers, like England in the above example, they tend to play great, but lose. That's not a great characteristic to have, which is why I see Mexico stumbling in the round of 16. But 75-1 aren't bad odds considering how much talent they do have.





South Africa: 250,000-1 odds





Why they'll win it:

The hosts are going to have a raucous crowd supporting them no matter what happens. South Africa won that Rugby world cup awhile back on the back of its united country, so who knows? A miracle could happen. The host nation has never failed to qualify for the knockout stage. If South Africa does indeed continue that trend, anything can happen in the knockouts, maybe even a few massive upsets. Steven Pienaar leads the Bafana Bafana midfield after enjoying a fine year at Everton in the English Premier League, and in recent friendlies, South Africa has shown a marked improvement. They haven't lost in a friendly going back to September. They even held their own at the Confederations Cup last year.

Why they won't:

Even tremendous home support from the fans cannot carry a mediocre side to victory. Remember that the South African rugby team which rode it's home support to a title also happened to be really good. Make no mistake, this South Africa team is a very ordinary side. Pienaar is a great talent, but not quite world class. The Bafana Bafana just don't have enough talent in midfield or the defense to make a run at this. It doesn't help that their all time leading scorer, Benni McCarthy, wasn't selected to play in the World Cup. So where do the goals come from?

Projection:

Originally I gave them 1 million to 1, but that seemed a bit harsh. They have certainly improved, but not enough to win a title infront of the home crowd. With Mexico, Uruguay, and France in their group, there is little hope of advancing past the group stage. Just making it to the knockouts would be a win in itself. Look for South Africa to put a scare in the rest of the group before falling short. Shame too because it'd be great to see them make a run for their fans.




Uruguay: 50-1 odds





Why they'll win it:

Uruguay won the very first World Cup back in 1930, and will be looking to repeat the feat in South Africa. In attack, they feature Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez, who were two of Europes best scorers for their respective clubs this past year. Forlan has been one of the top scorers in the Spanish league for years now actually. Any team with these two talents has a fighting chance. Recent friendlies have been encouraging too, with big wins over Switzerland and Israel.

Why they won't:

Uruguay's defense is nothing special. Winning by 4-3 scorelines is a dangerous path to follow. They'll be especially vulnerable on the counter, which both Mexico and France are adept at. They barely even made it to the World Cup in the first place, beating Costa Rica in play-off. Their qualifying record consisted of 6 wins, 6 losses, and 6 draws. Again, very ordinary.

Projection:

Despite their leaky defense, Uruguay could be a darkhorse candidate to win. I see them in the same category as Mexico, but their attack features two world class players in Suarez and Forlan. This group was originally panned as being weak, but Uruguay and Mexico are sneaky good, and it should be a great battle for 2nd spot. Look for Uruguay to suprise people, and don't be suprised if they make a deep run.



Tune in tomorrow for my breakdown of Group B.

Everything you need to know about the World Cup 2010

I will be doing a series of posts to breakdown each group in the upcoming World Cup. This should give anyone who's interested in the world's grandest sporting event a great understanding of the tournament in general. My group by group breakdown will begin June 2nd, and will run for 8 days (one group per day). The World Cup starts on June 11th, so use this to build the anticipation as the day grows near.