Group B:
Argentina: 5-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
Leo Messi. He's the best player on the planet and a World Cup victory would cement his legacy alongside his hero Diego Maradona. It could be said that Messi has actually underachieved when playing for his country, which isn't saying much considering how great he's played for his club, Barcelona. There's no doubt that he'll be determined to show the world why he's considered the best. But Argentina is no one man show. Gonzalo Higuain, Carlos Tevez, Sergio Aguero, and Angel di Maria all enjoyed great years with their respective clubs. Indeed with these 4, the attack is not a worry. The defense is anchored by Walter Samuel, who was a rock at the back of the Inter side which won the Champions League this year. It also seems that the Argies are rounding into form at the right time. They beat Germany, another soccer powerhouse, in Germany last month. So things seem to be falling into place for a title run.
Why they won't:
Diego Maradona is not as good a coach as he was a player, not by a long shot. Argentina struggled mightily in qualifying. It took a late goal against Peru to save their World Cup hopes. Maradona appears to be in the Jose Mourinho mould of coaching. That is, he attracts a lot of press attention to take the heat off of his players. He shares little else with the great Mourinho however, and that's a problem. His squad selection in particular is under heavy scrutiny. He failed to pick Esteban Cambiasso and Javier Zanetti, who were both key players for Inter this campaign. Clearly these two deserved a spot, and probably could've started, but 'Dona decided they didn't have a place in his side. Apart from the coaching question marks, they also have to figure out how to best utilize Messi. He hasn't reached his full potential when playing for his country, and that needs to change.
Projection:
Argentina is by far the most talented team in their group. They have a wealth of experience in every department. The fact that they are still a favorite to win despite leaving out Cambiasso and Zanetti speaks volumes about the talent at their disposal. I feel that the coach, Maradona, is the biggest question mark. He isn't great tactically and can be a distraction at times. Still, Argentina will be in the running for a title. There's just too much talent on this squad. If Messi plays like he does for Barca, look out for Argentina in the quarters and semis.
Greece: 5,000-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
The Greeks won the European Championship back in 2004 because of a stout defense and a propensity to convert from set pieces. Their uber-defensive style worked wonders, though neutrals were bored to death. This team is still playing the same style, but missing a few faces. Sotirios Kyrgiakos enjoyed a pretty good year with Liverpool and should be the pillar at the back. Giorgias Karagounis leads the attack and is a wonder goal waiting to happen. Because of the aerial ability of most of the Greek players, they will again need to convert corners and free kicks into goals.
Why they won't:
The Euro titles win was 6 years ago, and let's be honest, lightning doesn't strike twice. That win was a fluke, and teams have figured out Greece in the meantime. Sitting back all game playing defense is a tactic for lesser teams because it relies heavily on the luck of nicking a goal first. If Greece can head in an opening goal off a set piece , they're golden. But otherwise, they can't play from behind. Their style just doesn't allow for that. Even their recent form suggests an early exit here. They qualified in an easy group featuring soccer minnows such as Latvia, Luxembourg, and Moldova. They were recently beaten soundly by Senegal in a friendly, and they tied North Korea. Neither results give hope to a deep run at the cup for the Greeks.
Projection:
The odds of the Greek economy turning around are better than the odds of the Greeks coming anywhere near winning the World Cup. That is not a good thing. I know I gave my friends 200-1 odds on Greek winning, but 5,000-1 is more like it. I don't see Greece advancing to the knockouts, and dead last is a definite possibility. Both Nigeria and South Korea look to be in better position to snatch that 2nd spot after Argentina.
Nigeria: 2,500-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
On paper, Nigeria is Africa's most talented side. Although, the glory days of this soccer rich country are just a little behind them, they still have the chops to compete against the world's best. Taye Taiwo and Joseph Yobo are both known commodities in Europe and will be the defensive standouts. John Obi Mikel plies his trade as a central midfielder with English champions Chelsea. He is likely their most talented player and will be looking to stamp an impression in this tourney. The attack is ripe with options including Obafemi Martins and Yakubu. Both have enjoyed successful spells in the English Premier League, which is known as the best in the world. Add in the fact that Nigeria will have further motivation to win on their home continent and Nigeria is looking like a dark-horse pick to make a run at the cup.
Why they won't:
The most talented teams on paper aren't always the best teams on the pitch (read: France). Nigeria had a disappointing tournament at the African championships in January and needed a near miracle to advance this far ahead of Tunisia in their qualifying group. They sacked their coach recently and their soccer federation is in disarray. It just seems that the talent on this squad doesn't gel together as it should, and that's a problem. Even recent friendly results are inconclusive, with a win over lowly Congo and a draw against Saudi Arabia and Columbia. It's tough to know what to expect here. They could land anywhere from first to last in this group.
Projection:
Apart from Argentina, this group is wide open for Nigeria, Greece, or South Korea to step up. I give Nigeria decent odds because they are more talented than Greece and about equal to S. Korea, and they will be eager to make a run on their home continent. Look for the Nigerians to compete for that 2nd spot in Group B and maybe cause a scare in the round of 16. In any case, Nigeria plays an attractive style of soccer which will be fun to watch if you're a neutral.
South Korea: 1,000-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
They've had a really good run of form of late. Just this year they've registered friendly victories against Finland, Latvia, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Japan, and Belarus. They have not lost all year actually. Form like that can't be ignored. There aren't a lot of household names in this team, but they play well together and know how to perform at the World Cup, having reached the semis on home soil 8 years ago. Park Ji-Sung of Manchester United fame will be the key for this team. If he plays well, they will go places.
Why they won't:
Their defense is nothing to brag about. Against attacking sides like Argentina and Nigeria this could spell trouble. The only real test they've had in friendlies was the win against Ivory Coast, but an upcoming match against Spain should give us a better indication of where exactly this team is at. Though this team can compete well against any "second tier" team, I'm not so sure about what they can do against the powerhouses.
Projection:
Due to their great run of games leading up to the World Cup, I give the South Koreans the best odds of advancing to the knockout stage alongside Argentina in group B. After that, however, I don't see them making it past the quarterfinals. A round of 16 result is the most likely result for them.
Tune in tomorrow for my breakdown of Group C.
No comments:
Post a Comment