Group A:
France: 20-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
France is jampacked with talent. A world class player will be found in every position in this squad. Franck Ribery is one of the world's best attacking talents. Youann Gourcuff is not a household name yet, but may become one as he's a driving force through the midfield. Thierry Henry has aged, but he can still lead the line at a high level. The defense is fully capable of keeping a clean-sheet, but they can be tested by a good attacking team. Also, look for Hugo Lloris to have a great tournament. At just 23 years old, he's already established himself as one of the world's best keepers.
Why they won't:
Raymond Domenech, the coach for France, is an idiot. He's had an extremely talented squad for years now, but achieved nothing. It took a hand-ball goal against Ireland just to make it to World Cup. There is wide speculation that he's only kept his job because the French Football Federation doesn't want to pay the massive buy-out it would cost to get rid of him. Sound like a disaster? It gets worse. He neglected to pick one of the best young strikers in the world, Karim Benzema, for the team. Benzema didn't have the best year at Real Madrid, but his class is undeniable. Instead of this great young player, he chose Djebril Cisse, who had a decent year in the Greek league. The Greek league is not a very good league FYI.
Projection:
20-1 might actually be too generous. I can't see "Les Bleus" winning this, but with the talent they have, you never know. They may just be able to overcome their absent-minded coach, but don't count on it. I expect a quarterfinals finish at best for France.
Mexico: 75-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
Mexico recently played a tune-up match against England and by most accounts thoroughly outplayed them. Of course they also lost that match 3-1, so take that fact with a grain of salt. We did learn some valuable things about the Mexicans however. They can attack with the best of them. Carlos Vela is a great young talent who may use the grand stage to introduce himself to the world. They're also a great passing team, even against a soccer powerhouse like England. This bodes well for "El Tri", and even their defense is reliable with Rafa Marquez in command. Finally, Mexico's youth teams have been extremely successful, and all that talent should be about ready to present itself. They will be heavily favored to advance to the knockout stage, with only France likely to give them any trouble.
Why they won't:
Mexico is always capable of making it to the knockouts, but can't seem to get any further. In '02, they lost to USA (WOO!) in the quarters. In '06, Argentina broke their hearts in extra-time with a Maxi Rodriguez wonder strike. Performances like these fuel the idea that Mexico is a "good", not "great" teams.
Projection:
They should have no problem advancing, but against the world powers, like England in the above example, they tend to play great, but lose. That's not a great characteristic to have, which is why I see Mexico stumbling in the round of 16. But 75-1 aren't bad odds considering how much talent they do have.
South Africa: 250,000-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
The hosts are going to have a raucous crowd supporting them no matter what happens. South Africa won that Rugby world cup awhile back on the back of its united country, so who knows? A miracle could happen. The host nation has never failed to qualify for the knockout stage. If South Africa does indeed continue that trend, anything can happen in the knockouts, maybe even a few massive upsets. Steven Pienaar leads the Bafana Bafana midfield after enjoying a fine year at Everton in the English Premier League, and in recent friendlies, South Africa has shown a marked improvement. They haven't lost in a friendly going back to September. They even held their own at the Confederations Cup last year.
Why they won't:
Even tremendous home support from the fans cannot carry a mediocre side to victory. Remember that the South African rugby team which rode it's home support to a title also happened to be really good. Make no mistake, this South Africa team is a very ordinary side. Pienaar is a great talent, but not quite world class. The Bafana Bafana just don't have enough talent in midfield or the defense to make a run at this. It doesn't help that their all time leading scorer, Benni McCarthy, wasn't selected to play in the World Cup. So where do the goals come from?
Projection:
Originally I gave them 1 million to 1, but that seemed a bit harsh. They have certainly improved, but not enough to win a title infront of the home crowd. With Mexico, Uruguay, and France in their group, there is little hope of advancing past the group stage. Just making it to the knockouts would be a win in itself. Look for South Africa to put a scare in the rest of the group before falling short. Shame too because it'd be great to see them make a run for their fans.
Uruguay: 50-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
Uruguay won the very first World Cup back in 1930, and will be looking to repeat the feat in South Africa. In attack, they feature Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez, who were two of Europes best scorers for their respective clubs this past year. Forlan has been one of the top scorers in the Spanish league for years now actually. Any team with these two talents has a fighting chance. Recent friendlies have been encouraging too, with big wins over Switzerland and Israel.
Why they won't:
Uruguay's defense is nothing special. Winning by 4-3 scorelines is a dangerous path to follow. They'll be especially vulnerable on the counter, which both Mexico and France are adept at. They barely even made it to the World Cup in the first place, beating Costa Rica in play-off. Their qualifying record consisted of 6 wins, 6 losses, and 6 draws. Again, very ordinary.
Projection:
Despite their leaky defense, Uruguay could be a darkhorse candidate to win. I see them in the same category as Mexico, but their attack features two world class players in Suarez and Forlan. This group was originally panned as being weak, but Uruguay and Mexico are sneaky good, and it should be a great battle for 2nd spot. Look for Uruguay to suprise people, and don't be suprised if they make a deep run.
Tune in tomorrow for my breakdown of Group B.
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