The best way of breaking down each group is giving what I believe each teams odds are of winning the World Cup. This idea sprang to me when some friends were asking me about which teams I think might win it this year. They asked about Greece, to which I responded, "I would give you 200-1 odds at one dollar that they won't win it." Well, they took that bet, and the idea was born. But without further ado, let's take a look at Group F.
Group F:
Italy: 15-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
The defending World Cup champions are back and filled with experience. Many of the stalwarts from '06 return for further glory, including center back Fabio Cannavaro. The defense will be key as always for the Azzuri. The midfield is another strength with Daniele De Rossi of Roma fame having a propensity for belting a goal in from the midfield. There is also the fact that Gianluigi Buffon will keep the Italians in every match
Why they won't:
The strikers of '10 are not in the same class as their '06 counterparts. Alberto Gilardino is the headliner, and that may spell trouble. The coach, Marcelo Lippi, inexplicably left out some great talents from the squad. In particular, Antonio Cassano, who is among the most technically gifted forwards in the world. This Azzuri squad just isn't as good as in '06. They also lost to Mexico pretty badly in a recent friendly. Not a good sign.
Projection:
Italy is not as dangerous as years past, but they were extremely fortunate to draw perhaps the easiest group in the tourney. They may fall to 2nd in Group F, but even thats unlikely. Look for Italy to fall in the quarters.
New Zealand: No odds whatsoever
Why they'll win it:
The All Whites are a stout defensive squad and......let's not even kid ourselves. New Zealand won't win it. They have some players from lower English leagues and that isn't going to get it done. Even I can't come up with a list of reasons why New Zealand might win it. Chris Killen might get a goal or something though. Oh and they had a fluke win over Serbia in a friendly.
Why they won't:
They aren't good enough. It's that simple. They advanced to the Cup because of a simple qualifying group including New Caledonia (which I believe is a suburb near the Twin Cities), Fiji, and Vanuatu. They've lost pretty much every friendly (apart from that Serbia win which I'm trying to sweep under the rug). There are way too many reasons to write concerning why they won't win. That's all you need to know.
Projection:
They will not score a goal in the World Cup. They will finish last in this group. They will be happy to be here. Mark it in stone.
Paraguay: 25,000-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
Paraguay features some talented players. In particular, Roque Santa Cruz didn't have a great year at Man City, but he leads the attack and is capable of winning some games. They had a pretty good qualifying campaign and ended up finishing well above Argentina. They've also had a few good friendly results, beating Greece and North Korea.
Why they won't:
One of their biggest reasons for success was striker Salvador Cabanas. Unfortunately, Cabanas is missing out on the World Cup because of a gunshot wound to the head suffered earlier this year. The tragic event could motivate the squad, but his absence will surely be missed. Couple that with the weaknesses of the team in general and Paraguay's chances are looking slim.
Projection:
Paraguay is a capable squad, but I don't see them knocking off Italy or Slovakia. 3rd place is the likely position here.
Slovakia: 1,000-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
Marek Hamsik should be a lot more famous than he is. The talented Slovak has been lighting up the Italian league for years now. You can bank on a breakout performance from this guy, and he could very well lead this team to a suprise finish. The defense is also solid with Martin Skrtel of Liverpool fame anchoring the back line.
Why they won't:
Apart from match-winner Hamsik, the rest of the squad is rather ordinary. The strikers aren't reliable and the defense is beatable. They can hang with most squads for awhile, but I can't see them actually beating a top 10 team in the world.
Projection:
The Slovaks are easily the 2nd best team in a bad group. Finishing out of 2nd place would be a disgrace. Look for this team to finish 2nd and then bow out in the round of 16.
Tune in tomorrow for my breakdown of Group G.
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