Group D:
Australia: 200-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
The Aussies will have 2006 fresh in their minds. It was in Germany at the last World Cup where they played toe-to-toe with the eventual champions, Italy. Only a late dive by an Italian which earned a penalty prevented Australia from a penalty shootout. From there, anything could've happened. Though they didn't win that match, much respect was earned. Australia is a rugged side led by midfielder Tim Cahill. Cahill is one of the best headers of the ball in the world so watch out for him on set pieces. The Aussie defense allowed just one goal in qualifying, so that must be included among their strenghts. They also recently defeated the Dutch in a friendly.
Why they won't:
They're solid at goalie, defense, midfield, and.........what's missing? Oh ya, attack. They don't have a prolific striker to speak of. Joshua Kennedy is the best they can do. The journeyman striker is not who you want to rely on to win games. The midfield is capable of doing the scoring, but that can be a risky proposition.
Projection:
The Aussies have enough discipline and ruggedness to play with most teams, and this should spell a fairly successful tourney for them. Group D is sneakily good, but I see Australia taking second and bowing out in round of 16 again.
Germany: 25-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
"German efficiency". This is the perfect stereotype to describe German soccer. You can never count out the Germans because they simply find a way to advance. They've advanced to the knockout stage in every single World Cup since 1954, finished 3rd on home soil 4 years ago, and took 2nd in the European Championship. Germany is a star studded team is every department. The attack is once again led by Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski. This pair has proven to be quiet "efficient" in the past. Midfield is a bit bare now that Michael Ballack is out due to injury, but look for Bastian Schweinsteiger (by the way, that last name translates to "pig seller" in German) and Mesut Ozil to have good tournaments. In defense, Philipp Lahm is one of the best left backs in the tournament, and world for that matter.
Why they won't:
The loss of Ballack may be more of a problem than I led on. He was the captain and leader of the squad for years and it's tough to call how the rest of the team will respond. Also, a loss to Argentina at home in a recent friendly rose some question marks as to how good this team is. Indeed it does seem that this German team is down in comparison to 4 or even 2 years ago. The defense in particular is not soundest of backlines.
Projection:
Remember that 1954 stat? Well it isn't ending here. Group D is solid, but Germany is clearly the cream of the crop. They will grind out the wins and advance with ease atop Group D. From there, I believe they have the squad to make a run at the cup, but a quarterfinals finish is most likely. Maybe even the semis if the draw is favorable.
Ghana: 25,000-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
Ghana took home the U-20 World Cup last year. Their immense talent at the youth level will couple with the old guard to form a solid squad. Though much of the team that won at U-20 level isn't quite ready to perform at this stage, there are a couple players ready to step up. The defense is youthful, but were solid at the African Championships. The midfield is a little bare now that Michael Essien is out, but Sulley Muntari can fill in.....kind of. Look for Asamoah Gyan to have a good tourney as Ghana's main scoring threat.
Why they won't:
Remember Germany's problem? Well Ghana is in the same boat. Michael Essien is the Michael Ballack of Ghana, which is ironic because they both play their club soccer at Chelsea. Essiens absence is devastating for the Black Stars, he was the main reason why they gave Brazil a scare in the last 16 in 2006. Without him, Ghana is left toothless. A 4-1 loss at the hands of Holland is further evidence of this.
Projection:
Ghana will be inspired and hopeful of winning it on their home continent, but it's not going to happen. The loss of Essien is just too much for them to overcome. The youngsters should use this experience and be ready for the future, because they have the potential to win it.
Serbia: 200-1 odds
Why they'll win it:
Can you say "darkhorse"? Because Serbia might be one. They qualified in their group ahead of France, feature one of the best midfields in the tourney, and have an underrated defense. The aforementioned midfield is jampacked with talent, with Milan Jovanovic, Dejan Stankovic, and Milos Krasic. Krasic in particular is one of the most sought after players in Europe after a spectacular year at CSK Moscow. The defense is stout, with Nemanja Vidic and Branislav Ivanovic of Man U and Chelsea fame forming a tight unit which will be hard to outmuscle. In attack is 6 foot 8 inch Nikola Zigic, who will obviously be a force in the air.
Why they won't:
A recent loss to lowly New Zealand almost made me cool off my praise of this team, but let's assume that was just a blip on the radar. Though Zigic is monstrously tall, he's awkward with his feet (understandable). That means the midfield will have to supply goals, which they're more than capable of. Vidic can be dominant, but he's also got a temper which can lead to red cards. You can't have that lack of discipline in a tourney like this.
Projection:
That New Zealand loss almost made me give up my darkhorse talk, but I'm sticking to my guns. that midfield is jampacked, and the defense is more than reliable. Zigic isn't prolific, but look for Krasic to introduce himself to the world with a great tournament. Serbia appears headed for a quarterfinals finish, and could indeed be the "darkhorse" of the tournament.
Tune in tomorrow for my breakdown of Group E.
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